Back issues
- Issue No. 14 · 19 – 27 June 2026
The Memory Cycle Breaks — Micron Signs Take-or-Pay Contracts and Customer-Funded Capacity, and Oracle's $638bn Backlog Confirms the Buildout Went Off-Balance-Sheet
Issue 13's 'Week Ahead' forecast the memory read; Micron delivered something bigger than a cyclical beat. Its 10-Q shows the company converting from spot/commodity pricing to multi-year take-or-pay contracts — binding volumes, fixed or banded prices — with customers posting cash deposits that pre-fund the capacity. That is the memory cycle being structurally de-commoditised, the thing the industry has chased for forty years. Meanwhile Oracle's 10-K printed a remaining-performance-obligation backlog of $638bn (up from $138bn — a 4.6× surge), capex of $55.7bn (~83% of revenue), and explicit off-balance-sheet data-centre lease commitments 'not yet commenced and not included in our consolidated balance sheet' — which confirms Issue 12's forecast [2026-06-13-001] that the buildout's financing is migrating off the income statement. And a word on our own machinery: this period we fixed four measurement bugs that had been inflating the convergence engine — it has quietly flipped several reads, including some that underpinned last issue's forecast. We say so plainly.
9 filings · 25 signals · 12 tickers - Issue No. 13 · 11 – 18 June 2026
The Largest IPO on Record Priced — and SpaceX Spent It the Next Morning: an ~$86bn Listing, a $60bn All-Stock Grab for Cursor, and Dell Terms Out $3bn
Issue 12 put SpaceX in the lead as a pre-IPO compute story and pre-registered that the off-balance-sheet financing of compute would proliferate. This week the event arrived: SpaceX completed the largest IPO in history — roughly $86bn at $135.00 a share, with the proceeds earmarked first for 'expansion of the Company's AI compute infrastructure' — and then, the very next morning, agreed to buy the AI-coding company Cursor (Anysphere) for $60bn in an all-stock deal. The compute layer bought the application layer using freshly minted public equity. Underneath the headline, the credit thread kept compounding: Dell termed out $3bn of senior notes days after its working-capital balloon, Super Micro reached for a dilutive $1.25bn-plus raise, and Credo printed +198% revenue into a 10-K the convergence engine still reads bearish. The market is discriminating hard within the AI-hardware complex — and the pre-IPO tripwire caught the biggest tell of all.
17 filings · 14 signals · 12 tickers - Issue No. 12 · 6 – 13 June 2026
The Buildout Goes Off-Balance-Sheet — Broadcom Backstops a Customer's $29bn Compute Lease, Amazon Reaches for a Delayed-Draw Loan, and Oracle Beats a Record and Falls 13%
Issue 11 said the AI trade had become a credit story. This week it became a structured-credit story. Broadcom's 10-Q reveals a ~$29bn, five-year non-recourse-like partnership with Apollo to backstop a customer's compute-lease obligations; Amazon — the company that funds itself from cash flow — quietly took a $17.5bn delayed-draw term loan; Ciena raised $2.875bn in zero-coupon converts. Underneath, the bellwethers told you why: Dell printed +757% AI-server revenue and froze hiring in the same filing; Broadcom's backlog is now $164.6bn of contracted RPO with the inventory already built to ship it. And the regime held — forecast [2026-06-05-001] confirms: Oracle reported record revenue, beat consensus, and fell ~13%. The financing of the buildout is migrating off the income statement onto structured paper — and the company that may define the next leg, SpaceX, just filed to go public as an AI-compute business.
20 filings · 29 signals · 16 tickers - Issue No. 11 · 30 May – 4 June 2026
Record Quarters, Red Screens — Broadcom's AI Revenue Doubled, the Stock Fell 13%, and the Sector Held While the Crowded Name Bled
Broadcom printed the cleanest custom-silicon number of the cycle — AI semiconductor revenue $10.8bn, +143% YoY — and the stock fell ~13% on a soft Q3 guide, margin dilution, and Hock Tan admitting Google will multi-source. Forecast [2026-05-31-001] (AI growth >50%, fastest of the ASIC reporters) confirms on the number — yet the trade was the exact opposite. Ciena beat by a mile (+40% revenue, +290% EPS) and fell ~9%; Palo Alto held a 38.5% free-cash-flow margin and fell ~5.6%. And the tell that ties it to everything we've been building: SOXX rose ~6% on the week while its most crowded name bled, because Marvell ran +54%. The fundamentals printed. The consensus trade is where the pain is. And under all of it, the financing nobody's been watching: Alphabet's record bond raises and a ~$230bn hyperscaler debt binge that turns the AI trade from an equity-risk story into a credit one.
0 filings · 0 signals · 16 tickers - Issue No. 10 · 31 May – 2 June 2026 (interim issue)
The Optical Tell — Huang's Copper-vs-Optics Call Repriced the Photonics Layer the Digest Named on 31 May, While Credo Grew 157% and Still Fell
Two trading days after Issue 09 named photonics as the layer where the thesis was migrating, Jensen Huang's Computex remarks — copper 'has its limits,' use optics where you must — sent Coherent up ~17% to an all-time high, Lumentum +13%, Corning +13%, and gave Marvell a fresh bump, on top of NVIDIA's ~US$6.5bn of optical investments in three months. The same shift punished the one copper-AEC name in the universe: Credo grew revenue 157% and still fell ~10%. The Broadcom custom-silicon verdict — Forecast [2026-05-31-001] — reports tonight; the bar is set. And an honest note on what this system can and cannot yet do for a trader.
1 filings · 0 signals · 16 tickers - Issue No. 9 · 25–31 May 2026
The Verdict — Marvell's Data Center Hits 76% of Revenue, Dell Blows Out 33%, and the Smart Money Quietly Moved Into the Buildings
Marvell reported $2.42B (+28% YoY) with data center now three-quarters of the company and the Celestial photonic-interconnect deal closed — Baker's connectivity thesis is printing, even though our >35% growth bar missed at +27%. Dell surged 33% on AI-server demand and dragged the whole integrator layer up with it. And the 13F convergence shows the concentration spreading off the chip and into the physical layer — Digital Realty, Equinix, CoreWeave. Broadcom reports Wednesday: the cleanest custom-silicon read of all.
2 filings · 0 signals · 14 tickers - Issue No. 8 · 18–24 May 2026
NVDA's $81.6B Quarter Settles the Debate — Data Center Nearly Doubled, Q2 Guides $91B, and Baker's Exit Was Early
NVIDIA reported eight days before our prediction and cleared every bar we set. Revenue $81.6B (+85%), Data Center $75.2B (+92%), Q2 guidance $91B with no China assumed. The Issue 07 falsifiable form is closed: Aschenbrenner's NEW $1.57B NVDA position was right; Baker's -77% cut was early. Plus: stock down on a $30B beat, the memory trade reawakening, Credo's first directional print, and the next test is MRVL on 27 May.
0 filings · 6 signals · 10 tickers - Issue No. 5 · 11–17 May 2026
Lone Pine Just Did the Aschenbrenner Trade at $2B, Coatue Cut Microsoft by $1.6B, the AVGO Convergence Fires
Q1 2026 13F drop confirms the multi-issue thesis arc. Carvana and AppLovin show up in 4+ funds each — off-watchlist convergence alerts. Two notable non-filers.
16 filings · 18 signals · 22 tickers - Issue No. 6 · 17 May 2026 (Issue 05 correction + addendum)
The Issue 05 Footnote We Missed — Berkshire Tripled Their Google Position to $15.6B, and the Whole Reading Changes
Issue 05 shipped Sunday with eight tracked funds. Adding Berkshire as the ninth — the only fund outside the Tiger Cub network — surfaced a +$10B GOOG add that re-rates the entire AI consensus. Plus the methodology lesson: convergence detection only works if your funds are actually independent.
1 filings · 4 signals · 5 tickers - Issue No. 7 · 18–24 May 2026 (covering the late 13F drops)
Aschenbrenner Just Raised $8 Billion and Bought NVDA, AMD, TSM, AVGO, MU and ASML — Same Week Baker Sold All of Them
Both AI specialists filed late on 18 May. Their Q1 portfolios are diametrically opposed. NVDA earnings 28 May is the verdict moment. Plus: three Tiger Cubs are visibly de-risking AI mega-cap exposure in unison, and the Astera Labs / Credo convergence is starting to form.
2 filings · 14 signals · 16 tickers - Issue No. 4 · 4–10 May 2026
The Chip-Tier Verdict — AMD Hands OpenAI and Meta 320 Million Shares for a Penny Each, Arista Pays in Margin, the Capex Thesis Holds
Vendor financing as equity. ANET takes 35% with 180bps of margin compression to keep two customers. Meta commits 6GW of AMD GPUs. The Issue 03 hyperscaler thesis gets its chip-tier confirmation, with one strategic plot twist.
4 filings · 12 signals · 9 tickers - Issue No. 3 · 27 April – 1 May 2026
Amazon Just Bought a Slice of OpenAI for $50B and Sold AWS Chips Into the Bargain
The Microsoft-OpenAI exclusivity is dead. Meta prints +33%. Capex from four hyperscalers run-rates above $250B. Last week's Intel CAO mystery has a punchline: NVDA hired him.
12 filings · 16 signals · 13 tickers - Issue No. 2 · 20-26 April 2026
Tim Cook Steps Down, Vertiv Confirms the Backlog Was a Floor, and Intel Says It Might Stop Making Chips
Apple's first CEO transition since 2011 lands the same week that Vertiv prints +30% revenue with +400bps margin and Intel quietly discloses it may pause Intel 14A. Tesla guides $25B+ of 2026 capex driven by AI compute. CoreWeave taps another $1B at 9.75%, the high-yield market firming on the second print. Eleven filings. Three thesis-changing events.
11 filings · 12 signals · 14 tickers - Issue No. 2 · 20–26 April 2026
Apple Hands the Hardware Engineer the Keys, Vertiv Takes a 400bp Bow, Intel Drafts Its Own Eulogy
Cook out, Ternus in. The backlog wasn't a ceiling. The Intel risk factor that nobody priced. Tesla joined the hyperscalers without anyone noticing.
11 filings · 20 signals · 14 tickers - Issue No. 1 · 12-18 April 2026
The CoreWeave Capitalisation Trilogy, Amazon Goes Orbital, and Intel's U-turn
Six material filings last week told three stories: CoreWeave raised $6.75B in 48 hours and had Meta commit $21B to its backlog; Amazon agreed to buy Globalstar, making AWS the only hyperscaler with both cloud and satellites; and Intel bought out Apollo's stake in Fab 34, quietly abandoning the 'Smart Capital' strategy it announced last year.
6 filings · 17 signals · 18 tickers